Covid cases were falling in every age group except the over-80s last week

Covid cases were falling in every age group except the over-80s last week and infections dropped in all but three English regions, official data shows

  • Strongly suggests the tiered system was already beginning to slow the crisis before the national intervention
  • Infections were decreasing in all regions except the North West, South West and West Midlands up to Jan 10 
  • PHE surveillance report found hospitalisations, ICU admissions and mortality continued to increase

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Coronavirus infections were falling in every age group except the over-80s last week and cases were dropping in all but three English regions, official data shows.

It strongly suggests the tiered system was already beginning to slow the crisis before the national intervention because lockdown curbs takes weeks to have an effect on case rates.

Public Health England’s weekly surveillance found that infections were decreasing in all regions except the North West, South West and West Midlands in the week up to January 10, six days after the full lockdown was enforced.  

London continues to have the highest rate of any region, at 864.9 per 100,000 people, down from 1,043.9 in the previous week. Yorkshire & the Humber still has the lowest case rate at 297.2, down from 309.9.

In another positive sign, the proportion of positive tests declined in the week up to January 10. According to PHE, test positivity was 13.3 per cent last week, down from 17.5 per cent. Test positivity is a crucial way to monitor the outbreak because it takes into account fluctuations in the number of swabs carried out each day. 

But despite the positive trends in cases, the PHE surveillance report found hospitalisations, ICU admissions and mortality continued to increase. 

The three-week lag between someone catching Covid and falling seriously ill means these figures are likely to climb for another fortnight.

A new temporary mortuary that can hold up to 1,300 bodies has been built in London and the Government’s leading scientist Sir Patrick Vallance has warned that high death numbers will ‘carry on for some weeks’ because of the lag in time it takes for patients to fall critically unwell.

Professor Neil Ferguson, whose early modelling of Covid-19 plunged the UK into its first lockdown in March, said today: ‘We’re going to be well over 1,000 deaths a day, even measured by the date people die rather than the date deaths are reported, before numbers start coming down.’ But he said the current wave of the epidemic may be coming under control in some regions.

It comes as Health Secretary Matt Hancock said three million coronavirus vaccine doses have now been administered across the UK.

He tweeted that he was ‘delighted’ with the news, adding: ‘We’re accelerating the Covid vaccine rollout across the UK.’ Some large high street pharmacies, including Boots and Superdrug, have begun the process of administering vaccines.

Six stores across England were in the first group to administer the jabs from Thursday as the Government aims to hit its target of vaccinating around 15 million of those most at-risk by mid-February.

A regional breakdown of vaccination figures in England, up to January 10, showed a mixed performance.

A total of 447,329 doses were administered in the Midlands but London has delivered just 237,524 doses and the capital’s mayor Sadiq Khan said he was ‘hugely concerned’.

The NHS England figures indicate about half of people aged 80 and over in north east England and Yorkshire have received their first dose but just three-in-10 in eastern England and London.

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